Labour on course for best election result since 2001

Credit: Andy Miah

The Conservative lead over Labour has now reduced to only 9 points in the latest poll. Labour enjoy a record 35% vote share, rising from 26% just three weeks ago. If the current trend continues, Labour could be on course to receive upwards of 39% of the vote in the upcoming general election – the highest vote share Labour has achieved since 2001.

Data from Survation, Yougov and Opinium

When Theresa May called the general election on the 18th April, The Conservatives were enjoying their largest poll lead since the days of Margaret Thatcher, but in the last few weeks Labour have turned that around. The Conservative manifesto has gone down extremely poorly with the Conservatives’ core voters. Fox hunting, a dementia tax, and the end of their commitment to the pensions triple lock. All these policies go down poorly with the elderly, who the Tories need on side to win a general election.

While even the most optimistic of projections put Labour achieving their highest vote share since 1997, that may not be enough to win a general election, with the Tories also enjoying a record vote share in the polls. However, even a narrow Tory win in this general election would have extremely damaging consequences for Theresa May and her government. After ripping up the fixed terms parliament act and calling a third major vote in only three years, anything other than a landslide victory would be an embarrassment for Theresa May. A narrow victory would rip to shreds her message of a grossly unelectable Labour party, as well as casting doubt that Theresa May enjoys widespread support.

2017 projection based upon polling trends since 18-Apr

While there is still far for Labour to go to have any chance of winning the general election, one thing seems certain: Labour and Corbyn will excel expectations.